Saturday, November 29, 2008

Solar Eclipses, Bank Errors in Your Favor and Updates to this Blog

Looking back on the last month of poker playing, I'd like to say I've made a lot of improvement, but tragically, I haven't. In fact, my winrate is down significantly, hanging at around 1 bb/100 before rakeback. Still good enough to pay the bills, but I know it should be a bit higher. If I had to make an educated guess, I'd assume it's because I've gotten in the habit of watching TV while playing at all times. It makes it a lot easier to put in the hours I want, but I don't know if it's worth putting that many hours in if my winrate is that low. In December, I'm going to try and focus more on the tables and see if I can't get my winrate back up around 4-5bb/100, where it was for the first 100k hands or so of my pro-dom.

Another factor which may or may not be conrtibuting is my complete lack of effort to improve my play. When I drew up the plan for playing full-time, I allotted several hours a week to reviewing hands, both my own and other successful players, to see if I could find leaks in my own game and improve my play. In the past two months, I've done approximately none of that. I'm sure I have some leaks I need to address, and there's no doubt I could be more profitable if I loosened up a bit. Unfortunately, taking the time to concentrate on improving won't be easy in the next few months as I get ready to transition the business to a new location and focus on improving the product. The product improvement will take up enough time in itself, as I have to learn a new programming language and how to use a bunch of modules I've never used before. I know how they work in theory, but it's always more difficult piecing everything together. On top of that, I plan on traveling a bit in December, some personal and some business, so I might have to struggle to get in my regular poker hours too. So time spent on improvement is going to have to wait until later. On the plus side, December and January have historically been good months for me as the holidonks come out to play, so I should make a good chunk of change in the coming months. ON top of that, I should be getting a hefty tax refund for this year, so I might take a few weeks off for vacation and hand analysis. (Knowing me, it'll probably be all vacation and little to no hand analysis). Whatever I end up doing, the fact remains that at some point I'll benefit from analyzing my play and eliminating leaks to get my hourly profit up where it belongs.

On the 'Things I don't suck at' front, I ordered a new computer for my brother to replace his 4 year old one. He only needs it for poker, so we didn't go overboard, just got a nice, affordable one from Alienware for about $1,200. he got it last week and says it runs waaaay better than hsi old one. his old one coudlnt hack more than about 8 tables at a time with HUD up, so for him, it won't be too long before he recoups his investmentwith the extra profit from extra tables. Of course, shopping for a new computer only made me want a new one, but my 2 year old machine still handles everything I need it to (if with a little lag sometimes), so no point in spending any more money on a computer I won't see a return on. I am comtemplating ordering another 24" from the Full Tilt store though; one works pretty well, but 2 would be even better....plus my desk seems empty without two hulking CRTs taking up all the space. Not that another monitor would make me any more efficient, but it would be nice.

Speaking of computers, I really need to get my laptop fixed for all the travel im planning on. Nothing takes the boredom out of a long ass drive like playing poker while you're doing it! I can only do a couple tables at a time and still have enough concentration to drive well, but that's enough to make the drive much less boring. I figure in the approximately 50 hours of driving I plan on doing in December, even if I just run at 2 bb/100 with 4 tables open, I'll more than cover my gas expenses.

This past week has gone pretty well; for the first time in over a month, my bb/100 is at or above where it should be. It might be the higher volume of poor players; I've noticed an increase since about mid-November. If i ever get aroud to actually analyzing my hands, I'll know for sure. Till then, I'll just keep grindin. Probably wouldn't kill me to update this blog more than once a month though....

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Grindin'

Not much new going on. My trip back home was great; it's always a blast when I get to hang with my siblings. I slacked pretty hard that week poker-wise, only making $36, but it was worth it to have fun at home. The following week, I didn't even get to put in 30 hours due to a busy weekend schedule with the business, but I did well when I did play and pulled down a couple grand. I'm playing NL 100 exclusively now; after reviewing my stats, it's pretty clear that my winrate is better at NL 100 than NL 200, so it only makes sense to put my hands in there. In theory, I could make an argument for staying at NL 200 and learning how to beat it for a better winrate, but I don't think it's worth it. I only plan on supporting myself with poker for another year and some change, and right now, I'm perfectly fine with my winrate at NL 100 (about $45 an hour). I might experiment up there from time to time, but nothing too serious I think.

Full Tilt recently brought back the bank transfer method of withdrawal, which is great. It only took 4 business days to clear, slightly faster than the 6-7 it takes for the paper check and with less effort on my part. Slightly incovenient that the max is $2,500 per transfer, but since you can make one every week, it shouldn't be too big a deal. Even if I was consistently pulling down more than $2,500 a week, I shouldn't need to withdraw that much; if I did, I could always just get a check and get off my ass to pick it up.

Financially, I'm pretty comfortable. I don't spend much money as it is, but the $8,000 i've withdrawn since late September has given me a nice cushion so I don't have to worry about money much. I still have plenty of things I'd like to spend money on though, so there's plenty of motivation to keep grinding (at least for the next $200-$300k).

I'm looking forward to the holiday season, but it's going to be very busy. I've got a lot of travel planned in November and December, capped off by moving to Texas in late January. During that travel, I have to try to play as much as possible to take advantage of the holidonks. Last December/January was great for me, even by my current standards. I put in about 175k hands and pulled down about $9,000 (not bad considering 3/4 of that play was at NL 50). Obviously, this year I'm hoping for an even better payday. I don't think $12,000-$15,000 is unrealistic, and combining that with the substantial tax return I'm getting for the business, I should have my living expenses for 2009 pretty much covered by the time I head down to Texas. Better than I expected when I started this, for sure....still surprises me to remember that this time last year, the only poker I was playing was $10 SNGs. Hopefully when I look back a year from now, I'll be similarly surprised.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Lessons Learned

Been a bit since the last post, mainly because I hate posting about doing poorly. Even after I dug myself out of the hole, my laziness set in, but here we go.

I've mainly drawn back from NL 200. I'm not sure if the success was a fluke or people just adjusted to my play, but I can't seem to maintain a decent win rate up there. I'm making a little under 1 bb/100 at NL 200, which isn't as bad as losing it I guess, but considering I'm making about 6 bb/100 at NL 100, it clearly benefits me to play more at NL 100 than NL 200.

I closed out September fairly well, up $7,100 on the month. Just under 100k hands in 139 hours, and all in all, a result I'm more than pleased with. It's certainly more than I had hoped for when I decided to play to pay the bills.

October has been a different story so far. 92 hours, 71k hands, and I'm only up about $500. The first 2 days were the worst, dropping about $3,100 during that time. Looking back on my play, there were definitely some times I could have folded and saved some money, but the overall picture was pretty clear: aside from getting into it with the weak players when I had the nuts, I wasn't playing well, especially against the regulars. I shifted my focus back to NL 100 and NL 200, looking for fishy tables/players and trying to minimize losses to regs. NL 100 has given me no trouble at all though; my nittiness gets paid off enough by the players down there, or maybe it's just the lack of as many good regs. Whatever it is, I can grind out NL 100 in my sleep and make a decent hourly rate.

As happy as I am with the NL 100 hourly rate, I'd obviously prefer to be able to hang at NL 200 and make more, in theory. I picked up Harrington on Cash Games, and I'm almost done with Volume 1. A lot of solid concepts in there; some I knew already, but a lot of his assertions on hand stregths are things I hadn't given much thought towards. They sound like good ideas, but I'll definitely need to put in some practice before I'm ready to implement those ideas with 700+ hands per hour. I'll probably give them a try during the early afternoon, when there seems to be the most regulars around. Hopefully I'll have the patience to play only a few tables.

In other good news, the FT store added a new 24" monitor. It seems to be a pretty solid monitor, and it's certainly cheap enough (88k points, RB hit of about $120). I'm headed home this week, and I'll check out my brother's setup with his 24"; if I dig it, I'll probably get a monitor or 2 to replace my 17" and 19" behemoth CRTs. I've resisted the urge to do so before because it doesn't really up my productivity, as I don't need more screenspace; but it's not like I have anything better to spend my points on yet, and at some point, I'm gonna want/need better monitors. At the rate I'm going, I'm earning enough points for a monitor about every 3.5 weeks, so even if something else good comes along, I'll be able to grab it.

I'm visiting home this week before I head to a wedding, so I won't be able to get my usual quantity of play in. I'm shooting for 20-30 hours or so, but that might be too optimistic.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Sustainable? Week 1 Summary

I certainly didn't expect my first week playing for a living to be this good. Here's the damage:

Hands: 42,023
Hours: 54.8
Winnings: $3,107.05
Rakeback: $809.61
240 Full Tilt medals @$0.15 each: $36
Total: $3,952.66

I'm obviously pretty stoked with these results, even if I did technically slack off a little bit by not hitting my 56 hour goal. I made a lot more than I expected; I went in expecting $25-$35 per hour, and I've nearly doubled it! Not just lucking out either, as I'm actualy about $40 down in EV for the week. Hopefully it's sustainable and I can keep it up. My decision to move up to NL 200 exclusively (instead of half-and-halfing NL 100 and NL 200) seems to have worked out well. Over about 30,000 hands, I'm running at about 5 bb/100. I still have some improving to do, mainly on being able to lay down against opponents I'm fairly sure have me beat.

What I was really happy with this past week was that I never got down or depressed, even after some sick swings and a string of beats. I can remember not too long ago when a -$300 session would bother the crap out of me, and I got over a -$1,300 one with ease! I guess it IS a little easier to do since I was making way more than I had thought I could, but still, hard to do when beats like this happen: http://www.pokerhand.org/?3253998 (The funny thing is, this hand didn't phase me either. I did wonder to myself what the AA guy's thought process was here. He was running 32/13, and I'm guessing he was crapping himself to magically (in his eyes) get such action. Was obvious to me that the other guy had bottom set, which is why I didn't mind flat calling to keep the original raiser in.).

I don't have any specific goals for this coming week. I'll just try to repeat the previous week and maybe break $4k winnings or $1k rakeback if I get some extra time on the weekend. It does strike me as funny that my expectations are raised this high; $4k was the size of my bankroll just 2 months ago, lol. Maybe the check from FT will come in this week. That would be nice; almost as nice as them finding a quicker way to pay me. Plus, I need to figure out what to do with my FT points. I made a little over 36k this past week, bringing me to about 270k total. If I continue at this rate, I'll have about 770k by the end of the year. I guess I could try to sell them on 2p2, but browsing through other peoples threads, it doesn't look like they're exactly hot items. I've thought about just letting them accumulate and then withdrawing all my money, rebuilding my bankroll with just points. Would be amusing for sure.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Swings!

So the last few days have been a roller coaster ride. Swing down, swing up, swing down, swing up again. Check it out:




The last 7k hands were especially brutal. Wasn't getting much action good hands for first 5k, missing a lot, having my cbets stomped on, etc. Then, for the last 2k or so, everything went my way and I swung right back up. My gameplay stayed the same for the most part, although I did take it down to 8 tables of all NL 200 to concentrate more. I'll continue to play 8-10 for a bit until I get more comfortable. Yesterday especially, it felt like a lot of my semi-bluffs were either being outplayed (not too likely) or just running into better hands (in which case I'm substantially off on range estimating). I've tightened back up a little and stopped using my semi-bluffs in most cases. as you can also see, I'm running pretty bad, about $900 below EV. That just about catches me up with what I 'owed' in EV this month...not that it actually works like that from any one given point to the next, but it's ahandy assumption to adjust winnings during a given time period.

The good news is that the rakeback alone earned during my few days of pro-dom is enough to cover my living expenses. That certainly makes it a little easier to take the ups and downs, along with the fact that my hourly winrate still exceeds what I need it to be. Kinda funny that I've put in almost as many hands in the last 4 days as the entire rest of the month. I think it's safe to attribute that to the novelty of grinding out poker for a living. once it wears off, as I'm sure it will, I'll probably be hard pressed to play 25 hours a week. But then again, I do like money, so who knows?

As you can tell from the graph above, I've also started using Hold 'Em Manager instead of PT3. For the most part, everything is the same, although I like the HEM HUD a little better. The biggest feature for me is the equity-adjusted stats it computes; makes it a lot easier for me to keep track without having to copy HHs, switch computers, run hands in PT2, then run PokerEV just to find out what my EV was. The layout is also a little better in my opinion. I've got almost 2 weeks left on my trial, but I'm pretty sure I'll be buying it. I need to get a separate hard drive for it though; doing anything else on my computer while I've got poker going is painfully slow due to hard drive usage by the database. I need more storage space too. I don't think I need to upgrade my computer; it's only a year and a half old, and it's not like poker is too intense on the comp. I thought about getting a new one because they're getting rediculously cheap, but why bother? It'll just be outdated again, and it's not like it will get me much of anything performance-wise.

Gonna be busy tonight and the rest of the weekend with the business, but I'm looking forward to htiting the tables hard when I can. It's a shame most of my business work hours are during prime poker hours, but oh well...just have to remember that the business is my path to financial independence, not poker.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Variance!

I guess I didn't have to wait long to see whether or not my previous day's winrate was sustainable, lol. I started my session a little nervous about the imminent repaying of my owed EV. Sure enough, within an hour and a half I had repayed over $500 in EV ($400 pot with AA vs KK all in on turn, river K; and $250 pot with AKs vs AQo preflop, flops a Q) and also ran some hands into better hands to be down almost $900. Can't say I was too excited at this point, but what really impressed me was that I didn't have the slightest urge to tilt or get upset. I was playing good poker, so I continued my session and ended up playing for 6 hours and posting a $260 win. The win was nice, but I'm much prouder of my ability to not have $900 in rapid losses affect my game play. Analyzing my play afterwards, my Won W/O SD stats were down a little bit. I'm not sure if thats because I'm making good folds, letting people bluff me out of pots or both. Still, I'm not looking to make any major changes to my playstyle. My currently hourly winrate is way above what I expected; if it's sustainable, I'll just keep doing what I'm doing for the most part. My equity-adjusted winrate this month is a lil over $50/hr over 50,000 hands. I sure hope that continues as I play more and more.

My half-and-halfing at NL100 and NL200 is going well, even if the NL200 side of things led to a shitton of variance and tested my ability to not tilt. I'm increasingly confident I can beat NL200 for a decent rate, but of course I'll have to put in mor ehands to be sure. it's only my second day of going pro, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Perhaps I'll look back on this post a month from now and wonder how I didn't see it coming, but I don't think so. prop bet anyone? :P

Monday, September 22, 2008

Going "Pro"

After debating the plausibility of it for months, I decided to stop going into the office and taking a salary, supporting myself entirely on poker winnings. I'm a little nervous, but more excited than anything else. I'm comfortable rolled with about 50 BI, my monthly expenses are minimal, and I've got the ability to support myself without poker for about 12 months. With these fallbacks in place, I'm not worried about downswings (especially playing like the nit I am).

Of course, as soon as I made my last post (about how I look at poker as just another job to grind out, not looking to improve), I suddenly found myslef reading 2p2 more, concentrating more on tables and wanting to improve my game. Go figure. I've started loosening up a little more with mixed results, and I don't expect my game to change drastically. I'm just going to try to gradually change from an acceptable winrate to a better and better winrate. Sounds simple enough, right?

I started half-and-halfing NL100 and NL 200 today. NL200 didn't make me as nervous as I would have expected...I just played my game, adjusted very minutely, and ran like God. Gameplay doesn't seem to be too much different up there, and doubling my winrate was very nice. Today was my first day breaking $1k; I ended up making about $1,400in just under 6 hrs of play. Hell of a way to start things off...pity it's probably not sustainable. But I got my money in good almost every time, had a good feel for the action and people's ranges, and I'm generally pretty confortable with my play up there. Of course, this is over the gigantic sample size of 1,600 hands, so obviously I need to see a lot more hands before I can accurately assess the level. I'm optimistic though, and I'll see if I can maintain my optimism after the inevitable downswing.

More to follow...I'm sure I'll use this blog more in the future to brag about upswings/bitch about downswings.