Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Variance!

I guess I didn't have to wait long to see whether or not my previous day's winrate was sustainable, lol. I started my session a little nervous about the imminent repaying of my owed EV. Sure enough, within an hour and a half I had repayed over $500 in EV ($400 pot with AA vs KK all in on turn, river K; and $250 pot with AKs vs AQo preflop, flops a Q) and also ran some hands into better hands to be down almost $900. Can't say I was too excited at this point, but what really impressed me was that I didn't have the slightest urge to tilt or get upset. I was playing good poker, so I continued my session and ended up playing for 6 hours and posting a $260 win. The win was nice, but I'm much prouder of my ability to not have $900 in rapid losses affect my game play. Analyzing my play afterwards, my Won W/O SD stats were down a little bit. I'm not sure if thats because I'm making good folds, letting people bluff me out of pots or both. Still, I'm not looking to make any major changes to my playstyle. My currently hourly winrate is way above what I expected; if it's sustainable, I'll just keep doing what I'm doing for the most part. My equity-adjusted winrate this month is a lil over $50/hr over 50,000 hands. I sure hope that continues as I play more and more.

My half-and-halfing at NL100 and NL200 is going well, even if the NL200 side of things led to a shitton of variance and tested my ability to not tilt. I'm increasingly confident I can beat NL200 for a decent rate, but of course I'll have to put in mor ehands to be sure. it's only my second day of going pro, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Perhaps I'll look back on this post a month from now and wonder how I didn't see it coming, but I don't think so. prop bet anyone? :P

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